The Blame Game & A Zero COVID Strategy?

I have never believed that lockdowns and restrictions have achieved their stated aim, to beat the virus.

The exception is 2020’s first lockdown, at least during late March and April, when little was known about a new, highly-infectious virus spreading at lighting speed.

Many scientific experts are calling for more restrictions in the fight against COVID, with the threat we’ll be locked-up for longer if we don’t acquiesce. Perhaps they're going for a Zero COVID strategy, and not making that clear?

I don’t know what data they’ve got that’s not published daily on the GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard, because that data doesn’t tell me the same story as it's telling them!

First, we’re being bombarded with TV ads designed to shock people into adhering to the rules and staying home, with a sideswipe that you have blood on your hands if you don’t.

Data that Google, Apple and Waze collect and publish tracks people’s movements and compares it to pre-pandemic times. By creating indices, where 100 is base behaviour, percentages above or below old norms are identified. This gives insight into people’s movements over time.

The chart below, busy I know, tells several clear stories. The orange line shows the share of time people are spending at home. From a base of 100 last January, 20% more time was spent at home as soon as Lockdown 1 (L1) started. This gradually reduced as lockdown eased and over the summer. It’s clear during November’s Tiered restrictions most people spent more time at home, this January most people are spending almost as much time at home as they were at peak lockdown. The behaviour of what appears to be relatively small number of people, widely publicised in the media, should not be used to point the finger at the compliance of the vast majority.

At the start of L1, 70% fewer people went to a workplace, only essential workers being allowed not to work at home. This rose to around 50% immediately before July’s easing, and is almost exactly the same over the 3 weeks since the Christmas holiday period, and since we entered 2021 Lockdown. More evidence that even though some rogue employers, like DVLA, must be breaking working from home and social distancing rules, most aren’t.

Driving, both time spent and distance driven, immediately dropped 60% at L1, recovering quite quickly as people like essential workers were warned off public transport. It is clear that last November people drove less as they were told to travel less.

In 2021 Lockdown, when more people can work than allowed in L1, they’re still driving 30% less than last January. Throughout 2020 (post L1) the time spent driving has significantly declined compared to pre-pandemic.

I’m not an epidemiologist or scientist, however, it appears to me that short of a militarily imposed full lockdown, something no expert is suggesting, the second wave was bound to happen.

If the Government, Scientists and Medical Experts want to point the finger for the current pressures on the Health Services and appalling number of deaths, it shouldn’t be directed at the great British Public.

Preparations for the Winter season with COVID still endemic have been poor. Deaths particularly for respiratory diseases always rise at this time of year. What seem like more infectious COVID variants have exacerbated the problem, not most people’s disobedience of restrictions.

The number of recorded daily COVID cases has never been a good measure of the spread of the virus, as we’d need to test everyone all of the time to get a true picture.

What we can look at, using UK GOV published data, is the proportion of people testing positive for COVID. This has varied throughout the year. We tested almost nobody at the start of L1 and ramped up testing finally over the summer.

We’re now testing six times as many people daily that we were in August.

The chart below shows the percentage of tests returning positive rose sharply in October and the first half of November. Maybe this was mostly down to schools reopening and students returning to Universities, coupled with the time of year when people spend less time outdoors, as the virus spreads more easily indoors.

After a lull in positive tests in the last 2 weeks of November, they rose very rapidly in December, indicating the new variant circulating really was more contagious, to reach a peak on the 3rd of January at 12.5% of all people tested. What is also very clear, and highly pertinent, is this has dropped rapidly over the last 3 weeks. Now only 4% of people tested are positive, lower than any time since September.

This indicates the spread, even of the mutant virus has slowed. One reason we don’t need more restrictions.

There is a lag between people being infected, becoming ill and the roughly 5% of cases requiring hospital treatment.

In the chart below I have time-shifted when cases are reported to take this into account. The orange line shows cases the day after they were reported, the yellow line those reported 14 days ago. There is a clear link between the rise in cases reported in early December on the rapid rise in the number of people in Hospital with COVID and those needing to be on Mechanical Ventilators.

However, reported cases peaked at the end of the first week of January, and with the 2-week lag taken into account it appears we’ve reached the peak of pressure on the Health Services. Why are new restrictions now being suggested?

Sadly, the UK will hit 100,000 COVID Deaths in the next few days, that’s Deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test.

Excess deaths vs the five-year average would be a better measure, however, these figures are published weekly and a couple of weeks out of date, so not very useful for this analysis.

Based on the trends above, it’s likely the death rate hasn’t peaked yet. The chart below shows the % of cases resulting in hospitalisation 7 days after a positive test had been declining until late November when they rose again, as the mutant virus spread more widely. This peaked in mid-December and is on a downward trend since.

This occurred at the same time as the number of cases started declining steeply 3 weeks ago.

The percentage of cases proving fatal, when that is measured 3 weeks on from a positive test, has plateaued since Christmas Day. The reason we have still been seeing rising deaths recently is the sheer number of identified cases 2-3 weeks ago. Trends say within a week that deaths will start to decline quite sharply.

We have Scientists and some members of the cabinet calling for heavier restrictions on the UK population, and suggesting restrictions will only be lifted slowly, and not until at least after Easter, the first weekend in April.

Where is this latest unsubstantiated evidence new COVID variants are more deadly? I don’t see it in the data you publish daily.

Based on the data and trends highlighted above. I suggest at the review date of 15th February there will be many good reasons to start lifting restrictions, particularly in anything to do with outdoor activities and socialising. If vaccinations continue at the current rate, this is not irresponsible.

By Easter it looks to me we should be in a good place to get back to some kind of normal. Not the old normal, much more care will need to be taken to minimise the risk of infections from COVID and any of its inevitable mutations breaking out again, even at a lower rate as the summer begins.

COVID is not going to disappear, certainly not any time soon. We have to learn to live with it the best we can, without using Lockdowns as the only weapon in the fight.

The effects on people’s long-term health from other medical conditions, and damage to our culture and economic health are more important issues than attempting to drive COVID out.

We need the Government to address this now, look at the stats & analysis above, or show us what the science is you’re following.

You can see all the data above and other reports this interactive dashboard, updated daily