He's not the Moyesiah

A huge relief for West Ham United supporters with last night's win over fellow Premier League stragglers Watford.

I had a fantastic, boozy evening of watching my team on TV whilst Zooming with Boleyn Bar Hammer mates (sorry). Immediately after the game, and continuing this morning, die-hard supporters are already debating hotly whether manager David Moyes should be retained, or after a second term with the club, it's time to move him out again.

West Ham have had three wins from their last five Premier League games versus two from the previous twelve since the start of 2020 when self-proclaimed winner Moyes returned to the club.

After those twelve fixtures I argued the stats proved Moyes was not up the job, and that WHU were surely going to get relegated. I was (almost certainly) wrong about that, however my view hasn't changed substantially.

It's only fair to point out that the Hammers' under-performance since they moved to the London Stadium in 2016 cannot be blamed on their three managers alone, many fans consider Davids Gold & Sullivan and Lady Brady to be the real villains.

Recent form has improved dramatically mainly due to outstanding form of Tomáš Souček & Jarrod Bowen, both January signings, and Michael Antonio's truly magnificent performances. Since the Premier League resumed in late June, Antonio has scored more goals, seven, than any other PL player. I don't ignore the contribution of Rice who has been immense throughout, nor some other team players, it's just the 3 wins that have saved our season, have been driven by the form of Souček, Bowen and Antonio.

Many praise Moyes for the signings of Souček (loan) and Bowen. While he may have had final sign-off on these transfers, others suggest they must have been scouted under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini. I am clearly not a qualified football manager, scout or pundit, however, if I'd read this report from last November on Souček, a decision to bring him in on loan would have been a lot easier than learning the words to I'm Forever Blowing Bubbles. Bowen likewise was on many other football club's watch-lists throughout 2019.

I believe WHU will continue to flirt with relegation from the Premier League, and have woeful runs in the Cup competitions, with MasterMoyes at the helm. My opinion is primarily based on stats, although further reinforced by watching chin-stroking Moyes on the touchline, and his complete inability to react swiftly to any changes in game-play, what I call decision paralysis (sorry Barry).

Since leaving Everton after 11 years in-charge in 2013, statistically (based on win percentage and percentage of possible points), Man United appears his high-point. He was sacked at the end of his first season after they had "endured some of their worst results since the end of the 1980s". Without going into detail about his time at Real Sociedad, he was sacked after 11 games of his second season, with the team above the relegation zone on goal difference alone. He lasted one season at Sunderland, his return to the Premiership, guiding them to relegation as bottom placed club, a season also marked by inappropriate comments to a female journalist caught by a BBC microphone. He returned to WHU when manger Slaven Bilic was sacked after a poor start to his second season. Although he "saved" the club, his 6 month contract was not renewed, presumably because Gold, Sullivan & Brady didn't think him good enough. It's interesting to note Sullivan declared in 2015 "I would be disappointed if we don't join the so-called top six within the next five years" We're a long, long way from that!

We've had three managers since the move to the London Stadium, Pellegrini's first season the peak, reaching 10th place with 52 points. Moyes' record this season is considerably worse than when he was let go at the end of the 2017/18 season, and not dissimilar to Pellegrini's start to the season, and that includes taking into account what goalkeeping clown Roberto cost the club in lost points. Even if / when WHU beat Aston Villa on the final day of the season, his stats will be worse than in 2017/18, if we also beat Man United next Wednesday his % of possible points taken will only be a little over 40%. When you consider what this latest run of form would mean in a full season, we'd reach the top-half of the table at best.

This chart shows how many points have been needed on average over the three seasons to the end of the 2018/19 season to achieve certain standings in the Premier League. It's clear in the bottom half of the table, the number of points difference between safety and flirting with relegation is narrow, as the end of this season is making clear to us now.

Going back to win % and percentage of possible points over the last 3 seasons, it's apparent you need a win % of around 50% to be Top Six, taking nearly 60% of available points. We are nowhere near that. It also shows the further gulf to achieve Champions League qualification.

This is where WHU sit on average over the same period, on the cusp of top-half.

This is where WHU sit on this season's form. Remember there is little difference between the stats of Pellegrini and Moyes this season, and we are firmly in relegation flirtation territory. The 39 points are pro-rata from those achieved from the 36 games already played, to include the final 2 (rounded).

Many WHU fans will say Moyes deserves a chance to build his team, and impose his ways. I say his record since leaving Everton, statistically, strategically and tactically show he's less than a winner.

The Moyesiah he definitely isn't, and I worry we'll go into next season as relegation flirtation fodder, at best achieving top half.

Worse still, he'll suffer a similar fate to a turkey at Christmas time, and get sacked. Then we'll be looking for yet another mid-season "saving" manager, and another year will be lost on the road to achieving longer-term success.

Moyes To Go Now.

COYI

PS I apologise for the charts carrying tomorrows date, I was tired when I updated the stats this morning and made a mistake. Too time consuming to go back and change.